# Auxerre vs Nantes Ligue 1 Preview: Auxerre Set to Secure Narrow Home Victory
This Ligue 1 encounter between Auxerre and Nantes is poised to favor the home side, Auxerre, with a 52% probability of victory. Auxerre’s recent form, characterized by one win, three draws, and a single loss in their last five matches, reflects a resilient and defensively disciplined unit, conceding only 4 goals while scoring 6. Their average of 1.20 goals per game combined with two clean sheets underscores their ability to maintain defensive solidity at Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps. In contrast, Nantes has struggled recently with one win, one draw, and three losses, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 5, averaging 0.80 goals per game. Their lower momentum score (8/45) compared to Auxerre’s 20/45 further highlights their current struggles. Head-to-head statistics favor Nantes slightly with 5 wins to Auxerre’s 2 in the last nine encounters; however, the recent form and home advantage tilt the scales towards Auxerre. The prediction of under 2.5 goals (70% confidence) and no BTTS (75% confidence) is supported by both teams’ modest goal averages and Auxerre’s defensive resilience, making a 2-0 home win a plausible outcome. Overall, Auxerre’s stronger momentum, home advantage, and defensive form justify their favored status in this matchup.
## Predictions
Match Winner: home (52%)
Over/Under 2.5: under (70% confidence)
Both Teams to Score: no (75% confidence)
Correct Score: 2-0
Confidence Level: medium
Best Bet: Back Auxerre to win to nil, capitalizing on their strong defensive record and home advantage, which aligns with the predicted 2-0 scoreline.
Key Stats:
- Auxerre’s momentum score of 20/45 significantly surpasses Nantes’ 8/45
- Auxerre averages 1.20 goals per game with 2 clean sheets recently
- 70% confidence in under 2.5 goals and 75% confidence in no BTTS reflect defensive solidity